tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10948583.post92721181383414019..comments2024-03-08T05:11:27.985-06:00Comments on This Blog Gently Scolds Fascists: I bet my sociological winning percentage is at least .657Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10948583.post-56799919493615265432007-02-01T11:01:00.000-06:002007-02-01T11:01:00.000-06:00Once again, our methodological lives have us world...Once again, our methodological lives have us worlds apart. It would be indeed interesting to factor prior odds into the equation, but wouldn't it be even more interesting to figure out why the home team has such an advantage in the first place?<br /><br />I've always wondered that one, especially in baseball. I can see it in football, when the home crowd can cause false starts and mess up verbal cues and in general just intimidate and disrupt the other team. But baseball games are typically sparsely attended (save for the few big-name tradition teams like ChiCubs and BoSox) and the crowd rarely gets very loud. And even then, crowd noise would have the same impact in a game that relies completely on visual cues anyway.<br /><br />Is it the playing field? Other than the odd center-field mound in Arlington, a ballpark is a ballpark, more or less.<br /><br />Or is it really just the fact that you can't play your A game in a hostile environment?<br /><br />Either way, I think this is the project I want to be working on. Some good in-depth interviews oughtta take care of it. I'll start by doing some ethnographic observation at Jimmy John's in St. Paul to see if I can overhear any two random baseball players that may or may not be there discussing the subject while I wait for teams to grant me locker-room access...Wozhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13247249018163299884noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10948583.post-27449593567364527202007-01-31T17:02:00.000-06:002007-01-31T17:02:00.000-06:00Win probability added is some cool business, but I...Win probability added is some cool business, but I always find myself wondering why it assumes that teams start out with an equal probability (e.g., .5) of winning. I can think of any number of reasons why this is suspect. Road teams, for example, historically fare far worse record-wise than the hometown nine, on average -- and usually by a healthy margin. Maybe someone could come up with some sort of Bayesian WPA, in which prior odds get factored into the equation.<br /><br />StinkyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com